U.S. Agricultural
Market Outlook
March 2026
FAPRI-MU Report #01-26
Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU), 200 Mumford Hall; Columbia, MO 65211. FAPRI-MU is part of the Division of Applied Social Sciences (DASS) in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR).
Download Full ReportKey Results
Marketing Year
| Crop Prices | 2015/16-2024/25 Average | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28-2035/36 Average |
|---|
| Selected program benefits, billion dollars | 2015/16-2024/25 Average | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28-2035/36 Average |
|---|
Calendar Year except as noted
| Livestock sector prices | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
| Biofuel production, billion gallons | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
| Government outlays, billion dollars, fiscal year | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
| Net farm income, billion dollars | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
| Farm balance sheet, billion dollars | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
| Annual consumer food price inflation | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
|---|
For the 2025/26 crop only, producers receive the higher of their calculated ARC or PLC payment. For purposes of this table, all 2025/26 ARC or PLC payments are reported as PLC payments.
Note: The estimates are based on market information available in January 2026. Projections are averages across 500 outcomes.
Current Developments
Market net returns for four major crops have remained relatively steady since falling sharply from their peak in 2021/22. As commodity prices declined, input price increases were more persistent. While projected net returns for these four crops in 2026/27 are half the 2021/22 level, they are consistent with the 2014/15 to 2019/20 period. Costs for labor, land, and other fixed expenses have risen, maintaining pressure on margins across the crop sector.
Crop net returns decline from recent peaks
Cow-calf returns reach record highs
In contrast to the crop sector story, cattle prices have increased as cattle inventories and beef supplies have contracted. Net returns to beef cowcalf operators are expected to remain strong in 2026 and well above the last peak of the cattle cycle in 2014. Strong cattle returns offset weak crop returns in determining farm income in 2025 and 2026.
Crop Program payments and Participation
Under the 2014 farm bill, national average ARC payments per participating corn base acre exceeded PLC payments as prices declined from highs for both corn and soybeans. Under the 2018 farm bill, changing market conditions reduced corn payments under both programs. With the changes from the OBBBA projected average, payments are greater in the 2026-30 period for both crops in each program
Corn and Soybean Payment Increase
ARC and PLC payments and participation rates
Indices of prices pad by farmers
| Production items, interest, taxes, and wages | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|
Crop Variable Expenses
For corn, cost increases in fertilizer and other variable expenses more than offset a decrease in fuel and interest costs, resulting in higher variable expenses in 2026/27. However, 2026-2035 variable costs remain below those of 2022.
We define variable production expenses as USDA’s operating expenses plus hired labor. This includes seed, fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, and other variable inputs, but does not include the cost of land or machinery replacement.