U.S. AgriculturalMarket Outlook – Reusable blocks
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U.S. Agricultural
Market Outlook
March 2026
FAPRI-MU Report #01-26
Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU), 200 Mumford Hall; Columbia, MO 65211. FAPRI-MU is part of the Division of Applied Social Sciences (DASS) in the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources (CAFNR).
Download Full ReportData Table Styles Here
Marketing Year
| Crop Prices | 2015/16-2024/25 Average | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28-2035/36 Average |
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| Selected program benefits, billion dollars | 2015/16-2024/25 Average | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28-2035/36 Average |
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Calendar Year except as noted
| Livestock sector prices | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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| Biofuel production, billion gallons | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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| Government outlays, billion dollars, fiscal year | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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| Net farm income, billion dollars | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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| Farm balance sheet, billion dollars | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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| Annual consumer food price inflation | 2015-2024 Average | 2025 | 2026 | 2027-2035 Average |
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Table 1. Changes in fuel volumes and RIN prices
| Fuel use, million gallons | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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| RIN Prices, dollars per RIN-gallon | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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Table 3. Changes in agricultural prices, farm income, and program costs
| Feedstock prices, marketing year | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 |
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| Government outlays by | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
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International Crops
| World crop prices | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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| World product prices | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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| Oceania dairy product prices | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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| U.S. meat prices | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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| World biofuel price indices | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
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Chart Styles Here
Crop net returns decline from recent peaks
Market net returns for four major crops have remained relatively steady since falling sharply from their peak in 2021/22. As commodity prices declined, input price increases were more persistent. While projected net returns for these four crops in 2026/27 are half the 2021/22 level, they are consistent with the 2014/15 to 2019/20 period. Costs for labor, land, and other fixed expenses have risen, maintaining pressure on margins across the crop sector.
Cow-calf returns reach record highs
In contrast to the crop sector story, cattle prices have increased as cattle inventories and beef supplies have contracted. Net returns to beef cow-calf operators are expected to remain strong in 2026 and well above the last peak of the cattle cycle in 2014. Strong cattle returns offset weak crop returns in determining farm income in 2025 and 2026.
Crop Program payments and Participation
Corn and Soybean Payment Increase
Under the 2014 farm bill, national average ARC payments per participating corn base acre exceeded PLC payments as prices declined from highs for both corn and soybeans. Under the 2018 farm bill, changing market conditions reduced corn payments under both programs. With the changes from the OBBBA projected average, payments are greater in the 2026-30 period for both crops in each program
Corn
Soybeans
Figure 1. Ration of ethanol-to-gasoline buyer prices
These results suggest a potentially important change in the relative costs for buyers who consider purchasing ethanol or gasoline to blend into retail fuels. The ethanol fuel price to buyers rises by $0.16/gallon in the first year and $0.59/gallon in the fifth year. This increase suggests that future buying decisions in this scenario might not take place at prices comparable to what we see in markets today.