Food Policy Bites: The Cost of a Free Lunch – Taking Stock of the National School Lunch Program Post-Pandemic
February 22, 2023
Food Policy Bites Issue #5: Did you know that every meal sold in a school cafeteria is either partially or fully subsidized through the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), and that reimbursements for free lunches account for most spending? On average, each free meal costs the federal government about $4.90.
Before the pandemic, 68% of NSLP participants received free lunches and less than 6% received reduced-price meals. Starting in 2020, a temporary policy mandated free school lunches for all students, resulting in more than 90% of NSLP participants receiving free lunches in fiscal years 2021 and 2022. In FY 2022 alone, roughly 28 million students received free lunches, and total program cost stood at a historic level of $23 billion.
With participation rates starting to revert to the pre-pandemic levels, we estimate that spending on NSLP in 2023 will likely decrease to about $16 billion. A counter-factual option that prioritizes quality improvement under the same spending in FY 2022 would require an increase in average reimbursement rate by roughly $2.00 per meal. Considering current state-level efforts to extend or establish permanent free lunch programs, federal spending on NSLP in FY 2023 will likely be higher than our current estimate, though remaining below FY 2022 historic levels.
Food Policy Bites are easily-digestible food policy insights supported by economic data analytics and analyses.
